Hypothesis
As complexity is removed from a simulation, its verisimilitude improves.
Comparing two Different Levels of Complexity
In DnD combat, players and GM take turns rolling dice to knock “hit points” off each other’s pieces, and nobody really thinks about what hit points are; at the end of the combat they magically get restored (maybe the GM talks about “down time” or a “long rest”). If an archer shoots into a melee, there’s a small chance they’ll hit a friend and maybe do some bit of injury, but it’s kinda not a big deal.
DnD often is thought as attempting to “simulate” combat with detailed rules. But the outcome of the simulation fails verisimilitude and requires suspension of disbelief. We all know that someone stuck with an arrow is gonna be hurt - not just “down 6 hit points.”
In 2400, Jimmy the grifter’s android buddy was behind him when Jimmy tried to taze a thug and missed. Android Piece tried to shoot the thug with his wrist cannon, but got a bad roll and hit Jimmy instead. Instead of being “down 6 hit points,” Jimmy was immediately out of action and we went into a whole subplot about getting him to a trauma care center.
I generally thought of 2400 as a “narrativist” game, focused more on story than on simulating reality. But the outcome of action in 2400 made more sense than the result we would have gotten from a traditional roll-to-hit-and-damage game.
Is the Hypothesis Proven?
No.
2400 does not remove complexity from a simulation of reality. Instead, 2400 offloads the complexity from explicit rules (which are very difficult to get right, as they’re basically attempts at stochastic dynamics calculations) onto common sense (which has been trained for decades on a vast set of data to make very accurate predictions). In other words, “narrativist” games like 2400 more efficiently allocate the task of assessing damage from dice to minds, while privileging the dice to generate randomness.
2400 provides more believable outcomes not because it has simpler rules, but because it leverages the incredibly more complex rule sets that we carry in our heads.